Sanford, FL – Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver has released his midterm election forecast for the upcoming 2026 elections. In this forecast, he rates the Congressional race in FL-07 as the second most competitive House race in the country. The race, which he classifies as a toss-up, has Navy combat veteran and former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton winning the seat by a 0.2% margin.
Chart from the FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast.
Dalton reacted to the news, saying:
“I hear it every day in Central Florida – folks are ready for change. They’re pulling their hair out at the kitchen table as the cost of living rises. They’re disgusted by Cory Mills’s corruption and scandals. And they know that DC politicians are picking their pockets, to line their own. As a Navy combat veteran, I’ve spent my career taking on tough fights, and this is no different. We’re going to win in November, and fight like hell for a better deal for Central Florida.”
Silver’s forecast reinforces the race’s only publicly available poll, which shows Dalton leading Rep. Cory Mills by two, and winning independents by a 23 percentage-point margin. Dalton has earned the support of other prominent Florida leaders, including former Reps. Val Demings and Stephanie Murphy, former U.S. Senator Bill Nelson, Reps. Kathy Castor and Lois Frankel, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, State Sen. LaVon Bracy Davis, State Reps. RaShon Young and Rita Harris, Maitland Mayor John Lowndes, Commissioner for the City of Winter Springs, Sarah Baker, and Commissioner for the City of Casselberry, Tom Kirk.
ABOUT BALE DALTON:
Bale Dalton is a decorated Navy Reserve Captain and former NASA Chief of Staff who has always answered the call to serve America. One of four raised in a hardworking Central Florida family, Bale graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy and has served in the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve for 24 years. He deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, and the Pacific, flying Navy helicopters and directing air combat support with Navy SEALs in Afghanistan.
Following active duty, he worked for Senator Bill Nelson, helping Florida veterans access the care and benefits they had earned. After an additional stint on active duty, Bale returned to government service as NASA Chief of Staff. At NASA, he managed 16,500 employees and helped run one of the federal government’s most effective agencies.
After a lifetime of service, Bale is now running against Congressman Cory Mills in Florida’s 7th Congressional District. Mills is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for sexual misconduct, dating violence, and for improperly profiting from arms sales in government contracts. In October, a Florida judge issued a restraining order against Cory Mills, to protect his ex-girlfriend from blackmail and intimidation.
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